The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail--but Some Don't (Hardcover)

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ITEM# 14145009

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    ITEM#: 14145009

    Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.


    "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." Rachel Maddow, author ofDrift

    Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a bloggerall by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.

    Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

    In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they goodor just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentaryand dangerousscience.

    Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

    Specs

    ISBN 9781594204111
    Genre SOCIAL SCIENCE / Statistics
    Format Hardcover
    Pages 534
    Publisher Date 2012-09-27 00:00:00.0
    Publisher Penguin Pr
    Copyright Year 2012
    Height 9.75 in
    Wdth 6.5 in
    Thickness 1.25 in
    Unit weight 1.75 lb
    Language English
    Subtitle Why Most Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
    Edition Number 1
    Audience General/trade
    Authors Silver, Nate
    Country of Origin United States

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