The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Hardcover)

Today: $23.28
Free Shipping*
ONLY 9 LEFT!

Club O Gold Members Earn

$1.16 | 5% Rewards*

Rewards

GOLD

$19.95/yr.

5% Rewards

Earn even faster

Free Shipping

Never pay extra*

Exclusive Rewards

Save big-- up to 40%

Exclusive Offers

Straight to your inbox

5% Dining Rewards

Get paid to go out tonight

ITEM# 10443608
  • Delivery Estimate

    Select a Product Option to view shipping

      **Delivery date is approximate and not guaranteed. Estimates include processing and shipping times, and are only available in US (excluding APO/FPO and PO Box addresses). Final shipping costs are available at checkout.

    • Notifications

    Love this item?

    Save it to a list so you can find it anytime!


    Oops,

    something went wrong.

    Please refresh the page and try again.


    Details

    ITEM#: 10443608

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flaneur meditating in cafes, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is “decision making under opacity”—that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don’t understand.

    Taleb’s books have been published in thirty-three languages.
    The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.

    A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

    Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

    For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

    Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.

    Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ

    Praise for The Black Swan

    “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London)

    “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail

    “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times

    “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate

    “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal

    “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times

    “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Revi

    Specs

    ISBN 9781400063512
    Genre PHILOSOPHY / Epistemology
    Format Hardcover
    Pages 366
    Publisher Date 2007-04-17 00:00:00.0
    Publisher Random House Inc
    Copyright Year 2007
    Height 9.25 in
    Wdth 6.25 in
    Thickness 1.25 in
    Unit weight 1.6 lb
    Language English
    Subtitle The Impact of the Highly Improbable
    Audience General/trade
    Authors Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
    Dimensions 9.3x6.7x1.1
    Country of Origin United States

    Customer Reviews


    5 Stars
    1
    4 Stars
    2
    3 Stars
    1
    2 Stars
    0
    1 Stars
    0
    Advertisement
    • Most Helpful

    • The Black Swan
      Verified Purchase

      Not as good as Fooled by Randomness, but what he added here building on that first book was really interesting. He also has a style and outlook that is quite amusing. He's very iconoclastic and contrarian. Lot's of fun. Check it out.

      Read More
    • Most Recent

    • Black Swan with Service
      Verified Purchase

      The book came within days of the purchase online. The book was in brand new excellent condition and the service was awesome.

      Read More
    • Recommended especially if you're into this topic
      Verified Purchase

      Not recommended for casual thinkers on this topic. Highly recomended for those already interested in risk, markets, statistics, and unconventional approaches to the above.

      Read More
    • Verified Purchase

      Read More

    Questions & Answers

    Yay! Be the first to ask a question about this product.

    Shopping Tips & Inspiration

    Shipping & Returns

    Contact Information
    Shipping:

    This item will be delivered to you via USPS Trackable Media Mail or UPS Mail Innovations and will take from 2 days to 3 weeks from the time the item leaves our warehouse. *

    This product is not yet released, and is expected to ship on Apr. 17, 2007.

    This date is subject to change. In order to assure you receive Overstock.com's low price on this item, your credit card will be charged upon order placement. The item will ship immediately upon release.

    Standard Return Policy:

    Items must be returned in new or unused condition and contain all original materials included with the shipment. More Details

    FINAL SALE EXCLUSION: Items marked as FINAL SALE are not returnable unless the problem you experience is the result of our error.

    For your protection, all orders are screened for security purposes. If your order is selected for review, our Loss Prevention Team may contact you by phone or email. There may be a two business day delay to process your order.

    ** Most Oversize orders are delivered within 1-4 weeks. Some orders may take 6 weeks to be delivered.

    Advertisement